Publications

Road Capacity, Domestic Trade and Regional Outcomes [forthcoming in the Journal of Economic Geography (journal link)]
(with A. Kerem Cosar, Banu Demir and Devaki Ghose)
NBER WP 29228, CEPR DP 16512, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 9772.
Featured in World Bank Blog Post, VoxEU

What is the impact on intra-national trade and regional economic outcomes when the quality and lane-capacity of an existing paved road network is expanded significantly? We investigate this question for the case of Turkey, which undertook a large-scale public investment in roads during the 2000s. Using spatially disaggregated data on road upgrades and domestic transactions, we estimate a large positive impact of reduced travel times on trade as well as local manufacturing employment and wages. A quantitative exercise using a workhorse model of spatial equilibrium implies heterogeneous effects across locations, with aggregate real income gains reaching 2-3 percent in the long-run. Reductions in travel times increased local employment-to-population ratio but had no effect on local population. We extend the model by endogenizing the labor supply decision to capture this finding. The model-implied elasticity of employment rates to travel time reductions captures about one-third of the empirical elasticity.

Working papers

Banking and Growth: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Analysis
Online appendix, Earlier Drafts: EBRD Working Paper, IED Working Paper

This paper investigates banking expansion and economic growth. Contrary to theoretical, cross-country and historic evidence from the US, several recent microeconomic studies from developing country settings do not find enduring banking effects. I exploit exogenous expansion of bank branches in India, driven by a previously unstudied policy reform from 2005. Iterating a regression discontinuity design, I trace branch growth before and after the reform along with responses from the real economy. I find strong causal evidence that the expansion of financial intermediation led to positive outcomes in both agriculture and manufacturing, and confirm growth in local GDP using nightlights data.

Subsidizing the Private Sector for Development: Lessons from Mechanism Design
(with Paddy Carter and Francesco Decarolis)
August 2017, IED Working Paper #295, Boston University.

Estimating a Sequential Search Model with Bayesian Learning: A Case of Online Search for Differentiated Goods
(with Sergei Koulayev)

This paper extends a model of sequential search for differentiated goods by relaxing
the standard assumption of rational expectations. Agents are likely to refine their imperfect knowledge of product markets while searching. By introducing Bayesian learning into agents’ beliefs, the model better replicates important aspects of search behavior. Using data from a popular internet hotel search site, we estimate lower median search costs in the model with Bayesian learning. Considering a counterfactual in which the first page of search results present the most popular hotel options, we estimate an increase in the number of successful searches.

Selected works in progress

Refugee Influx and City Structure: Evidence from Mobile Phone Data in Jordan
(with Michael Gechter and Nick Tsivanidis)
*I am presenting this work at the Econometric Society Meetings (Winter 2021, North America)

Quality Within Reach: Digital Banking and Consumer Choice for Retail Deposits
[Working paper coming soon!]
(with Elisabeth Beckmann, Ralph De Haas and Helmut Stix)

Digitalisation and Firm Performance
Chapter for the Transition Report 2021-22
(with Jonas Hjort and Han Wang)

Mobile Internet Access and Firm Performance: A Spatial RDD Using 4G Roll-Out in Russia

Policy papers

Population agglomeration and dispersion in Emerging Europe: Opportunities and challenges across a changing urban-rural landscape
February 2021, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Atlas of the Human Planet 2020

Economic Impacts of COVID-19 Lockdowns: An examination of recoveries in Jordan
(with Luisa Cefala, Michael Gechter and Nick Tsivanidis)
IGC Policy Brief, December 2020
CEGA-IPA-JDC panel discussion event, “COVID-19 and Forced Displacement in the Global South | The Syrian Refugee Crisis: A View from Jordan”

Transport Infrastructure and Regional Growth: Evidence from Roads and Railways Across the EBRD Regions
EBRD Impact Brief, May 2020

Impact of Upgrading Infrastructure (pdf)
(with Sergei Guriev)
Global Public Investor 2019, OMFIF

Chapter 4: Geographic Transition
(with Klaus Desmet, David Nagy and Jamila Nigmatulina)
Transition Report 2018-19, EBRD (VoxEU Article, Vox Talks podcast)

Chapter 3: Infrastructure and Growth
(with Alex Chirmiciu, Flavia Ciferelli, Kerem Cosar and Banu Demir Pakel)
Transition Report 2017-18, EBRD

Chapter 4: Financial Inclusion
(with Ralph De Haas and Shusen Qi)
Transition Report 2016-17, EBRD